← Back
The cytotoxic effect of Ru(II) complexes with 5-(2-hydroxyphenyl)-3-methyl-1-(2-pyridyl)-1H-pyrazole-4-carboxylic acid methyl ester: Synthesis, X-ray structure and DNA damage potential
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of Environmental Management
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman
Research article
Public trust and knowledge in the context of emerging climate-adaptive
forestry policies
T
Guillaume Peterson St-Laurenta,∗, Shannon Hagermana, Kieran M. Findlatera,b, Robert Kozaka
a
b
Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2900 – 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
ARTICLE INFO
ABSTRACT
Keywords:
Public trust
Knowledge
Forest management
Assisted migration
Climate change adaptation
Policy support
Effective governance of public forests depends, in part, on public support for changes in forest management,
particularly those responding to changes in socio-ecological conditions driven by climate change. Trust in
managing authorities and knowledge about forest management have proven influential in shaping public support for policy across different forest managemen contexts. However, little is known about the relationship
between public trust and knowledge as it relates to policy support for emerging management strategies for
climate adaptation in forests. We use the example of genomics-based assisted migration (within and outside of
natural range) in British Columbia's (BC) forests to examine the relative roles of and interactions between trust in
different forestry actors and knowledge of forestry in shaping public support for this new and potentially controversial management alternative. Our results, based on an online survey (n = 1953 BC residents), reveal low
public trust in governments and the forest industry combined with low levels of public knowledge about forest
management. We find that individuals who are more trusting of decision-makers and other important forestry
actors hold higher levels of support for assisted migration. Higher levels of forestry knowledge are linked with
support for assisted migration within native range, whereas no knowledge effect is observed for assisted migration outside of native range. We discuss the implications of these observations and provide recommendations
to more fully engage with the challenges of low levels of trust and knowledge in this context.
1. Introduction
New and potentially controversial environmental management actions are increasingly proposed to help adapt forests to the impacts of
climate change (Hagerman and Pelai, 2018). Genomics-based assisted
migration—the intentional movement of tree species to more suitable
areas (within or outside of native range) based on climatic projections
and genetically-informed seed selection—is one such management
strategy (Park and Talbot, 2012; Aitken and Whitlock, 2013). For public
forests, which comprise approximately three-quarters of the world's
forested landcover (FAO, 2018), effective forest governance relies on
strong public support and acceptance of forest policies (McFarlane
et al., 2012; Nelson et al., 2017). Accordingly, the potential implementation of genomics-based assisted migration and other climateadaptive strategies requires strong public acceptance. Yet decades of
controversies over forest practices and poor conservation outcomes
(Agrawal and Gibson, 1999, FAO, 2016a, b) have, in general, led to an
erosion of public confidence in forest management (Nelson et al., 2017;
Cashore et al., 2001, Spies and Duncan, 2012).
∗
Two factors in particular, trust in managing authorities and
knowledge of the phenomena in question (reviewed in greater detail
below), tend to be implicated as crucial determinants of public support
for environmental challenges, particularly when the issues involve
managing commons resources located on publicly managed land
(Ostrom, 2009). Low public trust in government, for instance, is often
correlated with reduced support for forest management (Winter et al.,
2004; Wynveen and Sutton, 2015; Stern, 2008) and other environmental policies relating to climate change (Kellstedt et al., 2008). In
addition, some studies have found that limited public knowledge—while more complex in its role—can accentuate this effect (Siegrist and
Cvetkovich, 2000; McFarlane et al., 2012). Here, we contribute to the
literature on climate adaptive forest management (Aubin et al., 2011;
Pedlar et al., 2012; Vitt et al., 2010; Hagerman and Pelai, 2018) by
examining the roles of public trust and forestry knowledge as potential
drivers of support for new management alternatives on public land.
This study focusses on genomics-based assisted migration both
within and outside of native range. In British Columbia (BC), Canada,
genomics-based assisted migration within range (sometimes referred to
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: guillaume.peterson@ubc.ca (G. Peterson St-Laurent).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.04.065
Received 27 February 2019; Received in revised form 17 April 2019; Accepted 17 April 2019
Available online 07 May 2019
0301-4797/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
as assisted gene flow) is being trialed as a management strategy for
widespread implementation in the immediate future (O'Neill et al.,
2017, Government of BC, 2017). The potential adoption of this strategy
would represent a substantial change in management in a province
where 95% of forested land is publicly owned and the forestry sector
plays a major economic role (BC MFLNRO, 2017). While assisted migration is endorsed as necessary by many scientists and practitioners
(Ste-Marie et al., 2011), this approach has its critics amongst scientists
(McLachlan et al., 2007; Aubin et al., 2011) and publics (Hajjar and
Kozak, 2015; Peterson St-Laurent et al., 2018b). In part, hesitation
across these groups arises from the myriad scientific, climatic and
ecological uncertainties associated with this management approach
(Park and Talbot, 2012; Pedlar et al., 2012), as well as latent mistrust in
forest management more broadly (Findlater et al., 2018).
Considering the known, yet variable, relationships that exist between public trust, knowledge, and policy support for environmental
management dilemmas broadly, and the specific momentum for assisted migration in BC's publicly-owned forests, the objective of this
study is to understand the potential roles/non-roles of trust and
knowledge in shaping support for assisted migration in BC's forests. We
address the following questions:
2006). While some studies report inconclusive effects of knowledge
(Hajjar and Kozak, 2015; McFarlane and Boxall, 2000; McFarlane,
2005), others show a significant relationship between some dimensions
of climate knowledge (e.g. cause of climate change) and risk perception, but not others (e.g. physical characteristics of climate change) (Shi
et al., 2016). Based on a study of the effects of scientific literacy and
education on beliefs in the United States regarding six controversial
topics including climate change, Drummond and Fischhoff (2017)
found that science literacy may enable the defence of positions derived
from non-scientific motivations, corroborating “the motivated reasoning account, by which more knowledgeable individuals are more
adept at interpreting evidence in support of their preferred conclusions”
(p.9590). Combined, these studies suggest that while knowledge—or
more specifically, certain types of knowledge—may play a role in
shaping support in some contexts, other factors (e.g., political and religious views, cultural values) often have a greater influence on public
opinion (Sturgis and Allum, 2004; Kahan et al., 2012; Eden, 1998).
Considering the known, but complex roles of trust and knowledge as
characterized in other risk contexts, we evaluate how these two factors
shape support for assisted migration in forest management in BC.
3. Methods
1. What do British Columbians know about forest management?
2. Who do British Columbians trust to provide accurate information
about climate change and to select the most appropriate forest
management interventions in the public interest?
3. What is the nature of the relationship between knowledge of forest
management, trust and support for assisted migration?
3.1. Case study: assisted migration in British Columbia's public forests
In BC, like many other jurisdictions in Canada, forest management
has historically responded to the needs of the forest industry (Howlett,
2001; Cashore et al., 2001). As public interest in environmental values
and public participation in forest management has increased over time,
BC's forestry sector has moved from a bilateral government-industry
“partnership” towards a multi-stakeholder approach characterized by
the participation of a broader range of actors, including elected and
unelected officials, the forest industry, forest professionals, environmentalists, First Nations, actors involved in certification schemes
and the general public (Howlett et al., 2009; Luckert et al., 2011). The
importance of engaging with the public is reflected in the government's
objective to “strengthen public trust in natural resource management
practices by promoting values-based decision making principles and
engaging with stakeholders and communities” (BC MFLNRO, 2017).
The government also notes the importance of educating the public,
stakeholders and Indigenous peoples about climate change adaptation,
particularly in terms of “build[ing] a strong foundation of knowledge
and tools to help public and private decision-makers across BC prepare
for a changing climate” (BC MFLNRO, 2017).
Despite these apparent shifts towards broader participation, others
argue that the BC public continues to be dissatisfied with public participation in forest management decision-making (Tindall et al., 2010).
Supporting this claim, Peterson St-Laurent et al. (2018a) recently found
high levels of public mistrust in governments when it comes to providing information on climate change issues in BC's forests. This mistrust in the way the government manages forests and involves the
public, coupled with high levels of scientific uncertainty associated
with climate change adaptation in the forests, is the backdrop against
which the BC government is piloting assisted migration on public lands.
Further, we evaluate the effects of demographic and psychographic
factors (including perceptions of climate change) in predicting levels of
trust and knowledge of forest management.
2. Public trust, knowledge and support for forest management
The risk governance literature consistently identifies public trust as
a key determinant of perceived risk under uncertainty, and one of the
most important factors influencing public support for forest management in general (Eriksson et al., 2017; Ford et al., 2012; Nelson et al.,
2017; Stern and Baird, 2015). The relationship between public trust and
public support has been demonstrated in the context of forest certification (Sasser et al., 2006), climate change mitigation interventions in
forests (Peterson St-Laurent et al., 2018a), and the management of
forest fires (Toman et al., 2014; Olsen and Shindler, 2010; Winter et al.,
2004) and pests (Qin and Flint, 2010; McFarlane et al., 2012). One of
the key insights arising from this field is the observation that high levels
of public trust can help reduce conflicts and increase the ability of
communities to organize and implement new forest management strategies (Olsen and Shindler, 2010). While much of the literature focusses
on public trust in government and public agencies (Olsen and Shindler,
2010; Winter et al., 2004), other studies highlight the role of public
trust in non-governmental groups including forest industry (McFarlane
et al., 2012; Eriksson et al., 2017) and environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs; Sasser et al., 2006).
In addition to trust, the role of knowledge in shaping perceived risk
and policy support has occupied the attention of risk governance
scholars and others working at the science-policy interface (Pidgeon
and Fischhoff, 2011). One school of thought views the relationship
between knowledge and policy support as linear. This “knowledgedeficit model” holds that resistance to science and technologicallybased management solutions originates from a lack of familiarity and
information (Brown, 2009; Bauer, 2009). Accordingly, the assumption
is that educating the public about an environmental issue should enhance public support (Dickson, 2005). However, empirical support for
knowledge as a predictor variable (i.e., of support for policies) is much
more nuanced (Brown, 2009; Kellstedt et al., 2008; McFarlane et al.,
3.2. Data collection
Data was collected from an online survey exploring public views on
potential reforestation strategies for climate change adaptation in BC's
forests, including assisted migration. We gathered 1953 completed
surveys1 between May 15 and 30, 2018 using the online research panels
1
An additional 174 surveys were excluded from the analysis because they
were answered in less than 8 min, the minimum time deemed required to fill
out the survey during pre-testing.
475
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
of the digital data collection company ResearchNow. Here, we report on
56 continuous, ordinal scale, multiple choice and open-ended questions
to evaluate the BC public's knowledge about forest management, trust
towards various groups and support for different reforestation strategies
including assisted migration.
One of the limitations of online surveys is restricted sampling
availability (i.e., certain individuals are less likely to complete online
surveys), which can lead to underrepresentation of certain groups of
individuals (Blair and Czaja, 2013; Wright, 2005). To avoid underrepresentation of segments of BC's population within the sample, we
prescribed quotas based on the latest population census (2011) for age,
gender and population in large urban centres (i.e., Victoria and Vancouver). The survey was extensively pre-tested multiple rounds of pilot
testing with diverse individuals (e.g., government representatives, students, members of the public) to ensure clarity of the survey's illustrations, descriptions and questions. The survey included multiple opportunities throughout—in the form of open text fields—for
respondents to detail and clarify their responses, and add further
comments.
The survey began with an overview of climate change and its impact
on BC's forests. This was followed by questions about demographics and
perceived causes of, and risks associated with, climate change (treated
here as independent variables). To evaluate public perceptions of climate risk, participants indicated (on a 5-point ordinal scale from not at
all (0) to extremely (4)) how serious a threat they thought climate
change would be within the next 25 years to: (i) them personally, (ii)
people in BC, (iii) BC's natural environment, (vi) the world's population
and (v) the world's natural environment. This spectrum allowed us to
evaluate differences in perspectives between the potential impacts of
climate change at personal, regional and global scales. We also used this
data to assign an aggregated average index on risk perception of climate
change to each respondent. We adapted a question from Leiserowitz
et al. (2017) to assess respondents' belief on the causes of climate
change. We then created a binary variable with two factors, regrouping
either respondents who think that climate change is “mostly caused by
human activities” or by all the other response options2.
To measure knowledge and trust among BC's public, we collected
data on: (i) different dimensions of knowledge about forest management and (ii) trust in government and non-governmental actors involved in forest management. We assessed respondents' knowledge of
forest management in BC with 10 true or false questions (a “not sure”
option was also provided) that covered reforestation (four questions),
economics of forestry (four questions) and two questions on forest
ownership. For each respondent, we calculated aggregated indices for
all questions (out of 10), as well as for knowledge on reforestation and
economics (out of 4) by summing the results of the individual questions,
where a correct answer = 1 and an incorrect answer or “not sure” = 0.
Second, we asked participants to rate the extent to which they trusted
different groups to provide accurate information about the implications
of climate change for forest management on a 5-point ordinal scale
from not at all (0) to extremely (4). We also asked respondents to indicate their levels of agreement—on a 5-point ordinal scale from
strongly disagree (−2) to strongly agree (+2)—with the statement, “I
trust decision-makers to choose the interventions that would work in
the best interest of British Columbians.”
Finally, respondents were introduced to the concept of assisted
migration within and outside of natural range using illustrations and
textual descriptions (Appendix 1). Respondents were informed that
these strategies are currently being considered for implementation by
the BC government. We asked respondents to indicate their levels of
support for both types of assisted migration using a 5-point ordinal
scale from strongly oppose (−2) to strongly support (+2), with an
unsure option (0).
3.3. Data analysis
We conducted all of the statistical analyses in R Studio (version
1.0.153, http://rstudio.org/). We used descriptive statistics (i.e., means
and frequencies) to summarize the data. We treated individual interval
scales as ordinal variables and, therefore, used non-parametric statistical analysis (e.g., Kruskall-Wallis test), whereas we analysed composite scales, created by summing rating scale questions, with parametric
statistics (e.g., paired t-test). We used factor analysis on the trust data to
reduce the number of actors into a smaller number of categories, extracting factors with eigenvalues of greater than 1. We used a minimum
loading of 0.50 to distribute the items within each factor and created
new aggregated indices by averaging the scores of the items that loaded
in each category. We calculated a Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient (α) to ensure internal consistency of the new scales. We carried
out multiple linear regressions to evaluate the effects of the independent variables (i.e., demographics and perception of climate
change) on the aggregated levels of knowledge of forestry and levels of
trust for the categories of actors identified in the factor analysis.
Multiple linear regression analysis was the appropriate model for the
continuous scales generated by the factor analysis of trust in different
actors. Notably, trust in professional foresters is treated separately,
since this variable did not load strongly enough onto the two main
factors. Although this dependent variable is measured using an ordinal
scale, we nonetheless analysed it using linear regression so that we
could compare the results with those of the two other categories of
actors. Finally, we carried out ordinal logistic regressions to evaluate
the contribution of public trust and knowledge of forest management on
levels of support for both types of assisted migration.
4. Results
An overview of participants’ demographics can be found in
Appendix 2. Overall, respondents reported that climate change poses a
serious threat—averaged across the five questions, 82% of respondents
perceived it to be moderately serious or higher, with only 4% saying
that it represented no threat (Fig. 1). There were significant differences
in the perceived threat of climate change across spatial scales (KruskallWallis: H(4) = 777.54, p < 0.001), increasing from personal to global,
meaning that the BC public generally perceive climate change as a
distant threat. More than half of the respondents (54%) indicated that
climate change is mostly anthropogenic (see Appendix 3 for detailed
distribution), while 42% indicated that climate change is equally or
mostly caused by natural changes in the environment.
Respondents' knowledge of forest management was low and highly
variable. Out of ten true/false questions, respondents correctly answered an average of four (SD = 2.20; Fig. 2). The question that was
most often answered correctly (57% of respondents) was that “even
though about 95% of BC's forests are publicly owned, logging rights are
mostly transferred to private companies” (true). In contrast, only 15%
of respondents correctly responded to the statement that “forest policy
in BC allows for genetically modified trees to be planted on public land”
(false). We used a Student's t-test to compare mean responses to questions on reforestation issues (M = 1.60, SD = 1.14) versus questions on
forestry economics (M = 1.62, SD = 1.06). Because we found no significant difference between these two types of forestry knowledge (t
(1925) = 0.91, p = 0.37), we used only the aggregated forestry
knowledge score in further statistical analyses.
The variation in performance on individual knowledge questions
indicates different levels of public knowledge about different aspects of
forestry. On the one hand, a majority of respondents were aware that
most of BC's forests are publicly owned, that the responsibility and right
2
The other options included: (i) caused mostly by natural changes in the
environment, (ii) caused equally by natural changes in the environment and
human activities, (iii) not caused by natural or human activities, because climate change isn't happening, (iv) other or (v) I don't know.
476
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
Fig. 1. Perceptions of how serious of a threat climate change is from global to local scales, with 0 = not at all and 4 = extremely.
to manage, harvest and use forest resources is commonly delegated to
the private sector through a system of licensing arrangements (for more
details, see Luckert et al., 2011) and that forestry represents a fundamental component of BC's economy. On the other hand, public
knowledge was low for questions related to reforestation and the use of
genetically modified trees on public lands. Most respondents also incorrectly believed that logs, as opposed to processed wood products,
account for the majority of the BC forest industry's exports. Only 15% of
respondents were aware that most of the Indigenous peoples' traditional
territory in BC is unceded and without treaty (for more details, see BC
Treaty Commission, 2018).
With respect to trust, respondents had differing opinions—only
about one third agreed (32%) or strongly agreed (5%) with the statement, “I trust decision-makers to choose the interventions that would
work in the best interest of British Columbians.” A slightly smaller
proportion of respondents disagreed (20%) or strongly disagreed (7%)
with the same statement, while 36% indicated their neutrality. Many
respondents entered comments in the optional text fields that highlighted their lack of trust in the government. For example; “I don't have
much faith that the outcomes [of scientific research on assisted migration]
will be adopted by government.”
There were also significant differences between respondents' levels
of trust in the ability of different actors to provide accurate information
about the implications of climate change for forest management
(Kruskall-Wallis H(7) = 15.4, p = 0.03; Fig. 3). Post hoc Dunn's pairwise tests indicated that all mean responses were significantly different
from each other except for those for the provincial and federal governments (p = 0.09). Scientists were, by far, the most trusted group,
with 60% of respondents indicating scientists as “very” or “extremely”
trustworthy. Multiple respondents commented that scientists or other
experts should be the ones making decisions about forest management.
For example; “I hope that before any radical changes are done to the current reforestation policy, it is tested and looked at very closely by foresters
and scientists.” In contrast, only 6% of respondents deemed the private
sector or industry to be “very” or “extremely” trustworthy.
The factor analysis (Table 1) identified two clusters of actors who
exhibited shared response patterns on the question of trust. Except for
professional foresters (loading of 0.443 and 0.206), all actors clearly
loaded into one of the two factors. The first cluster included the provincial and federal governments and the forest industry. This group of
actors personifies the dominant government-industry “partnership”
found in the forest sector prior to the recent shift in governance, and we
hereafter refer to them as the “traditional forestry actors.” Multiple
respondents expressed deep suspicion of this “partnership” in their
comments. For example;“The 'secrets' [of the forest industry] are kept by
the industry and the government. The industry and the government do not
want average people to know what is going on, and who profits from it.”
While professional foresters obtained a fairly high loading into the
477
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
Fig. 2. Overview of the results of the individual true/false questions to assess respondents' levels of knowledge with forest management in BC.
traditional forestry actors grouping (loading of 0.443), the fact that
they not clearly loaded into the factor points to their ambiguous and
evolving role in managing publicly-owned forests and suggests that the
public makes a distinction between governments and the forest industry
on the one hand, and practicing foresters—who may or may not be
employed by these institutions—on the other. The second group included First Nations leaders, environmental groups and scientists—actors who have recently gained more influence and authority in forest
management decisions (hereafter called “emergent forestry actors”). On
average, respondents were more trustful of emergent forestry actors
(M = 2.17, SD = 0.89, α = 0.76) than of traditional forestry actors
(M = 1.47, SD = 0.79, α = 0.83; t(1925) = 33.162, p < 0.001).
We used multiple linear regressions to evaluate the effect of demographic variables on knowledge of forestry and trust in the two actor
groups and professional foresters (Table 2). Although the F-values of
the four multiple linear regression models were significant and the
significant variables that the models extracted were similar, the regression model predicting trust in emergent forestry actors (adjusted
R2 = 0.39) better explains the variance in the data than do the models
for trust in traditional forestry actors (adjusted R2 = 0.06) and professional foresters (adjusted R2 = 0.05), as well as for aggregated knowledge (adjusted R2 = 0.08).
Urbanites, women and younger individuals had significantly lower
forestry knowledge, while respondents who were more highly educated
478
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
Fig. 3. Trust of different actors to provide accurate information about the implications of climate change for forest management, with 0 = not at all and 4 = extremely.
higher levels of trust in traditional forestry actors. Respondents who
believed that climate change was mostly anthropocentric were more
trustful of emergent forestry actors and less trustful of professional
foresters. There were also positive statistical relationships between residence in urban centres as well as gender and trust in traditional actors, whereas older individuals were more likely to trust professional
foresters (Table 2).
While a majority of respondents supported or strongly supported
each type of assisted migration (within and outside of native range;
Fig. 4), on average, assisted migration within native range received
significantly more support than outside of native range (Mann–Whitney
U = 1,624,500, p < 0.001). Knowledge of forest management and
public trust in emergent actors and professional foresters were positively associated with support for assisted migration within native
range (Table 3). In contrast, respondents who indicated higher trust in
traditional forestry actors were more likely to support assisted migration outside of native range. Respondents who trust decision-makers to
choose the interventions that would work in the best interest of British
Columbians indicated significantly higher level of support for both type
of assisted migration.
Table 1
Factor loadings for trust scale items. Loadings in bold indicate that they have
been selected in a factor.
Loading
Factor 1 – traditional forestry actors (α = 0.76)
BC's provincial government
0.913
Canadian federal government
0.830
Private sector/industry
0.595
Factor 2 – emergent forestry actors (α = 0.83)
Scientists
0.213
Environmental groups
0.144
First Nations leaders
0.172
Not included in either factor
Professional foresters
0.443
0.178
0.253
0.595
0.857
0.653
0.206
or who had been employed in the forest sector had higher forestry
knowledge. A higher perceived threat of climate change and higher
education predicted greater trust levels in all actors. Individuals who
were employed in forestry and towards the right end of the political
spectrum (i.e., conservative) had significantly lower levels of trust in
emergent forestry actors and professional foresters, and significantly
479
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
Table 2
Multiple linear regressions predicting forestry knowledge scores and public trust in traditional and emergent forestry actors and professional foresters. Results include
estimated coefficients and standard errors. Bolded results are statistically significant.
Independent variables
Aggregated knowledge
Trust in these actors to provide accurate information about the implications of climate change for forest management
Traditional forestry actors
Emergent forestry actors
Professional foresters
Risk perception of CC
Cause of CC (anthropocentric)
Age
Gender (male)
Education
Employment in forestry
Political (right orientation)
Region (Rural)
Region (Urban)
Region (Suburban)
0.05 ± 0.06
−0.03 ± 0.11
0.03 ± 0.003***
0.69 ± 0.10***
0.11 ± 0.04**
0.66 ± 0.21**
0.003 ± 0.02
0.32 ± 0.17
−0.35 ± 0.10***
N/A
0.18 ± 02***
−0.08 ± 0.04
0.0002 ± 0.001
0.09 ± 0.04*
0.04 ± 0.01**
0.24 ± 0.08**
0.05 ± 0.008***
−0.11 ± 0.07
0.09 ± 0.04*
N/A
0.54 ± 0.02***
0.12 ± 0.04***
−0.002 ± 0.001
−0.03 ± 0.03
0.02 ± 0.01*
−0.13 ± 0.07*
−0.05 ± 0.007***
−0.09 ± 0.06
0.04 ± 0.03
N/A
0.21 ± 0.03***
−0.14 ± 0.06*
0.005 ± 0.002**
−0.04 ± 0.05
0.04 ± 0.02*
0.16 ± 0.11*
0.05 ± 0.01***
0.03 ± 0.09
0.08 ± 0.05
N/A
Adjusted R2
F value
0.08
20.05***
0.06
13.95***
0.39
132.90***
0.05
9.00***
*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.
5. Discussion
observed in many regions across the globe (Spence et al., 2011, IPCC
2018). In BC, the recent unprecedented insect infestation (Kurz et al.,
2008), wildfires (BC Wildfire Service, 2018) and flooding (Cousins,
2018) have led the government to publicly acknowledge the need for
the province to prepare for a “new normal” of flooding and fires (Abbott
and Chapman, 2018). While forest-dependent communities experience
these impacts first-hand, large urban centres are also increasingly vulnerable (e.g., hazardous air quality due to smoke from forest fires;
Quackenbush, 2018; Fayerman and Mahichi, 2018).
Three insights arise from our analysis that clarify the roles of trust
and knowledge in the context of climate change adaptation in forest
management: (1) the consistency of climate risk perception findings
and persistent inaccuracies in attribution, (2) the current levels and
directionality of public knowledge and trust, and the reasons explaining
the observed divergence (i.e., demographic and psychographic factors),
and (3) how support for assisted migration operates in this context.
5.1. Perceptions of climate change risks: Consistent perceptions, persistent
inaccuracies
5.2. Who trusts whom? Who knows what?
The low public trust in government and the forest industry reported
by our respondents is consistent with other studies in BC (Tindall et al.,
2010, 720, Peterson St-Laurent et al., 2018a) and elsewhere (Nelson
et al., 2017; Eriksson et al., 2017; Olsen and Shindler, 2010). The dissimilar levels of trust in different forestry actors suggests that governments and the forest industry would benefit from working more publicly and transparently with a broader diversity of actors (e.g., First
Nations, NGOs), for instance through co-management initiatives (e.g.,
Cullen et al., 2010, Mabee and Hoberg, 2006). The literature on organizational change (Primmer and Wolf, 2009; Schultz et al., 2018) and
public engagement (Sheppard, 2005; Peterson St-Laurent et al., 2018c)
also suggest that collaborations between diverse actors may benefit the
Our findings on perceptions of climate change risks amongst BC's
public are remarkably consistent with previous studies from Canada
and BC (Mildenberger et al., 2016), as well as other Western countries
(Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006; Spence et al., 2011; Leiserowitz et al.,
2017). Specifically, our study and others find that, while there is
widespread public awareness and apprehension about climate change,
misunderstandings of its anthropogenic origins persist and associated
risks tend to be perceived as spatially distant. As the impacts of climate
change become more noticeable, a growing awareness of the local and
regional threats posed by climate change is likely. For example, increases in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters are being
Fig. 4. Levels of support/opposition for both assisted migration within and outside of native range, with −2 = strongly oppose and 2 = strongly support.
480
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
Table 3
Ordinal logistic regressions predicting the effects of public trust and forestry knowledge on support for the two assisted migration strategies. Results include
coefficients and odds ratio in parenthesis. Bolded results are statistically significant.
Support for AM within native range
(−2 to +2)
Knowledge of forest management
0.15 *** (1.16)
Trust in this group to provide accurate information about the implications of climate change for forest management
Traditional forestry actors
0.004 (1.05)
Emergent forestry actors
0.12 * (1.13)
Professional foresters
0.09* (1.09)
Agreement with the statement “I trust decision-makers to choose the interventions that would
0.29*** (1.33)
work in the best interest of British Columbians”
Nagelkerke R2
0.07
Support for AM outside of native range
(−2 to +2)
0.003 (1.002)
0.28*** (1.32)
−0.02 (0.98)
0.03 (1.03)
0.47*** (1.60)
0.10
*p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001.
decision-making process around forest management issues—for instance, by increasing trust, credibility and the legitimacy of the resultant policy.
The finding that respondents differentiated between scientists and
professional foresters working on the ground (e.g., as trusted) and
government institutions or political operatives working on policy (e.g.
as less trusted) is consistent with findings from Shindler et al. (2014),
who note the importance of distinguishing between public trust in
government, or organizational trust, and public trust in individuals, or
interpersonal trust. In this study, interpersonal trust relates to trust in
field managers, foresters and other experts that are the face of the
agency. Because interpersonal trust can sometimes overcome a lack of
trust in governments (idem), our results suggest that engagement of
professional foresters and scientists working within government agencies with publics may help foster greater trust in management decisions
(Toman et al. 2008, 2011; Schultz et al., 2018).
Our findings on public knowledge of forestry and forest management are similar to related work in the context of forestry. Harshaw
et al. (2009) similarly found low levels of forestry knowledge and
conclude that this may affect the capacity of the public to effectively
engage in decision-making processes around forest management. In
partial contrast, unlike Shi et al. (2016), we did not find that varying
levels of knowledge (i.e., about different aspects of forest management)
had different effects on policy support. However, low levels of knowledge about two aspects of forestry—the overall unfamiliarity with reforestation and the use of genetically modified trees on public lands
—stand out as particularly relevant for understanding public support
for assisted migration. Notably, respondents often incorrectly believed
that genetically modified trees were used in BC's publicly owned forests—a practice that is currently illegal. Considering that recent studies
have found strong opposition to GMOs (Hajjar and Kozak, 2015;
Peterson St-Laurent et al., 2018b), the potential for the mistaken conflation of genomics technologies (that do not manipulate the genome)
and GMO technologies (that do) represents a potential area of public
misunderstanding in the implementation of assisted migration strategies.
While our findings reveal low levels of public knowledge about
forestry, this should not be interpreted as evidence that the public is
unqualified to participate in technical and scientific debates and decision-making (see Irwin and Wynne, 1996; Cozzens and Woodhouse,
1995). Neither should this finding support the reasoning at the root of
the debunked knowledge-deficit model of science communication—as
still used by some scientists and decision-makers—that “given the facts
(whatever they are), the public will happily support new technologies”
(Brown, 2009, 609). Furthermore, because we are unlikely to ever
completely understand the potential risks of implementing (or not implementing) assisted migration (Aubin et al., 2011; McLachlan et al.,
2007), focusing on the knowledge-deficit could lead to “an illusion that
the deficit can indeed be fixed” (Brown, 2009, 609).
The regression analyses identified determinants of knowledge that
generally align with those previously reported in the literature. For
instance, other studies have found that rural residents (Racevskis and
Lupi, 2006; McFarlane et al., 2006), older male and more educated
individuals (Fuller et al., 2016; Wiliams, 2002) are generally more familiar with different aspects of forest management. On the other hand,
determinants of public trust are more complex and need to be considered within the historical context of BC and the important public
opinion divide that arose in the 1980s over how forests should be
managed (Luckert et al., 2011; Cashore et al., 2001). Simply put, proponents of conventional commercial harvesting—traditionally, the
government and the forest industry—were confronted with a new
coalition advocating for more conservation-based approaches (Pralle,
2006). Because this fragmented political landscape is still relevant to
this day, public trust in the context of BC forest management seems to
be shaped more by ideology rather than by demographics. This context
explains why variables such as political orientation, employment in
forestry and views about climate change play significant role in shaping
levels of public trust while gender, age and urban/rural residence do
not. While these results are highly context-dependent, they may be
relevant to other regions of the world with similar histories of contentious and litigious debates over forest management (e.g., US Pacific
Northwest; Ribe and Matteson, 2002, Spies and Duncan, 2012). Our
results also demonstrate that professional foresters, who may or may
not be directly associated with the forest industry, are seen by the
public—in terms of trustworthiness—as somewhat distinct from both
traditional and emergent forestry actors. This is indicative of an evolving forest sector in which the public recognizes and values multiple
types of expertise.
481
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
5.3. Linking public trust, knowledge and support for assisted migration
and public trust—beginning with trust in governments—to improve the
perceived quality of decisions about the design and implementation of
genomics-based assisted migration. One way to achieve this could involve the implementation of meaningful engagement with the public
and stakeholders during decision-making around complex forest management (and other environmental) issues, for instance, through innovative participatory processes (Rauschmayer and Wittmer, 2006).
Importantly, the purpose of such processes should not be to ensure
unreserved support for assisted migration, but rather to allow for a
participatory, informed, transparent, constructive and deliberative decision-making process, regardless of its outcome in relation to acceptance or rejection for the implementation of assisted migration in public
forests.
Citizen engagement processes have been repeatedly identified as
instrumental in determining the effectiveness of communications, interactions and trust between the public and managing agencies (Toman
et al., 2006; Chilvers, 2007). Such approaches have also been shown to
lessen perceived discrepancies between scientific and public knowledge, as well as to increase public awareness (Chilvers, 2007). These
participatory efforts are particularly important in an era of ‘fake news’
and siloed social media (McCartney, 2016). Misinformation around
politically charged issues, such as climate change, has the potential to
generate public confusion (Barthel et al., 2016) and, as some have argued, act as a deterrent to effective decision making (Tambini, 2017).
Our analysis suggests some specific areas of emphasis for public
engagement. For instance, knowing that urbanites have lower levels of
knowledge about forest management may help inform communication
efforts and engagement materials. Similarly, knowing that politically
conservative individuals and those employed in the forest sector have
higher levels of trust in government and the forest industry also suggests that efforts to build trust might be well-placed with other actors.
Professional foresters may play a crucial role in mediating distrust by
more publicly engaging in the design and implementation of forest
management plans.
In view of the BC government's expressed intent to implement assisted migration strategies in the near future, it is imperative that the
government support effective decision-making by working to foster
collective and constructive interactions and to increase trust and reciprocity between the public and other key actors. Considered as a
whole, our findings can be used in the development of tailored communication materials and public engagement processes that would
foster informed discussions about the potential costs and benefits of
assisted migration.
The low levels of public knowledge about forest management and
public trust in governments and the forest industry identified here
suggest that the widespread implementation of genomics-based assisted
migration and other climate-adaptive policy changes in BC's forests may
be met with some public resistance. The positive effect of trust on
support for assisted migration is consistent with other studies that have
shown that public trust plays an important role in determining support
for natural resource management decisions and policy (Stern and
Coleman, 2015; Lachapelle and McCool, 2012; Olsen and Shindler,
2010; Winter et al., 2004). The results from the ordinal logistic regressions indicate that respondents who trust emergent forestry actors
are more likely to support management options that maintains historical natural species distribution (i.e., assisted migration within native
range), whereas trust in traditional forestry actors is associated with an
inclination towards assisted migration outside of native range. This
divergence between emergent and traditional forestry actors highlight
once again the persistent divide in public opinion when discussing
forest management. The lower trust in traditional forest managers
(governments and forest industry)—which has also been noted in the
context of climate change mitigation in BC's forests (Peterson StLaurent et al., 2018a)—could reduce public willingness to accept and/
or support new forest management strategies like assisted migration,
especially in light of the potential risks associated with implementation
(Park and Talbot, 2012; Pedlar et al., 2012).
The relationship between knowledge of forestry and support for
assisted migration is more ambiguous; a significant effect on support for
assisted migration within native range, but no effect on support for
assisted migration outside of native range. For the former, we speculate
that respondents with higher levels of forestry knowledge may be more
aware of the extent to which seed sources, plantations and forest
management, more broadly, already involve high levels of human intervention. This interpretation is supported by recent focus groups in
forest-dependent communities (Findlater et al., 2018). For the latter,
we note that the scientific community is similarly divided about whether or not to move species beyond their native range, with many experts suggesting the potential for unknown ecological risks (Mueller
and Hellmann, 2008). This ambivalence—both in the literature and
among respondents—hints at the difficult trade-off between accepting
the impacts of climate change on forests and implementing strategies
that may improve forest resilience, but that may also lead to negative
consequences (e.g., introduction of invasive species or pests; Aubin
et al., 2011). Further, given that assisted migration outside of native
range likely involves greater ecological risks—many of which do not
apply to assisted migration within native range (Hewitt et al., 2011)—
knowledge may not be the most important predictor of risk perception
and policy support where uncertainties are high and diverse values are
at stake, a finding that has been reported elsewhere (e.g., Kahan et al.,
2012; McFarlane et al., 2012).
Acknowledgements
The CoAdapTree project is funded by Genome Canada (241REF),
Genome BC and 16 other sponsors (http://coadaptree.forestry.ubc.ca/
sponsors/). We are grateful to the CoAdapTree team, the SocialEcological Systems Research Group, Margot Spence and Kathy Hopkins
with the Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and
Rural Development and students from the Institute for Resources,
Environment and Sustainability for their insightful feedback during
development of the survey.
6. Policy implications and recommendations for forest
management
Our results suggest the need to strengthen both forestry knowledge
482
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
Appendix 1. Description of assisted migration within and outside of natural range presented in the survey.
Appendix 2. Overview of participants' demographic information
Variable
#
Percentage
Age
19–34 years old
35–54 years old
≥55 years old
461
712
749
24.1%
36.9%
39.0%
483
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
Gender
Male
Female
Prefer to self-describe
Prefer not to answer (NA)
Education
Elementary school (1)
High school (2)
Vocational/technical school (3)
Some university/college (4)
Bachelor's degree (5)
Graduate degree (6)
Prefer not to answer (NA)
Employment in forest sector
Employed (directly or indirectly)
Not employed
Prefer not to answer (NA)
Political orientation
0 (left)
1
2
3
4
5 (Neutral)
6
7
8
9
10 (right)
Prefer not to answer (NA)
Region of residence
Urban
Suburban
Rural
Prefer not to answer (NA)
871
1065
7
9
44.6%
54.6%
0.4%
0.5%
10
350
403
342
518
278
51
0.5%
17.9%
20.6%
17.5%
26.5%
14.2%
2.6%
109
1798
45
5.6%
92.1%
2.3%
70
102
171
182
173
611
198
177
117
59
66
26
3.6%
5.2%
8.8%
9.3%
8.9%
31.3%
10.1%
9.1%
6.0%
3.0%
3.4%
1.3%
974
762
190
26
49.9%
39.0%
9.7%
1.3%
Appendix 3. Respondents' perception on the cause of climate change.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.04.065.
Saner, M.A., Venier, L., Wellstead, A.M., Winder, R., Witten, E., Ste-Marie, C., 2011.
Why we disagree about assisted migration: ethical implications of a key debate regarding the future of Canada's forests. For. Chron. 87 (06), 755–765. https://doi.org/
10.5558/tfc2011-092.
Barthel, Michael, Mitchell, Amy, Holcomb, Jesse, 2016. Many Americans Believe Fake
News Is Sowing Confusion. Pew Research Center. http://www.journalism.org/2016/
12/15/many-americans-believe-fake-news-is-sowing-confusion/#fn-59275-1,
Accessed date: 1 December 2018.
Bauer, Martin W., 2009. The evolution of public understanding of science—discourse and
comparative evidence. Sci. Technol. Soc. 14 (2), 221–240. https://doi.org/10.1177/
097172180901400202.
BC MFLNRO, 2017. 2017/18 – 2019/20 Service Plan. http://bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2017/
sp/pdf/ministry/flnr.pdf, Accessed date: 9 February 2019.
References
Abbott, George, Chapman, Chief Maureen, 2018. A Report for the Government and British
Columbians. Addressing the New Normal: 21st Century Disaster Management in
British Columbia. BC government accessed May 09.
Agrawal, Arun, Gibson, Clark C., 1999. Enchantment and disenchantment: the role of
community in natural resource conservation. World Dev. 27 (4), 629–649. https://
doi.org/10.1016/s0305-750x(98)00161-2.
Aitken, Sally N., Whitlock, Michael C., 2013. Assisted gene flow to facilitate local
adaptation to climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 44 (1), 367–388. https://
doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110512-135747.
Aubin, I., Garbe, C.M., Colombo, S., Drever, C.R., McKenney, D.W., Messier, C., Pedlar, J.,
484
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
BC Wildfire Service, 2018. Wildfire Season Summary. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/
content/safety/wildfire-status/about-bcws/wildfire-history/wildfire-seasonsummary, Accessed date: 11 February 2019.
Blair, J., Czaja, R.F., 2013. Designing Surveys: A Guide to Decisions and Procedures,
second ed. Sage Publications Inc, London, UK.
Brown, Simon, 2009. The new deficit model. Nat. Nanotechnol. 4, 609–611. https://doi.
org/10.1038/nnano.2009.278.
Cashore, Benjamin, George, Hoberg, Howlett, Michael, Rayner, Jeremy, Wilson, Jeremy,
2001. In: Search of Sustainability: British Columbia Forest Policy in the 1990s. UBC
Press, Vancouver.
Chilvers, Jason, 2007. Deliberating competence: theoretical and practitioner perspectives
on effective participatory appraisal practice. Sci. Technol. Hum. Val. 33 (2), 155–185.
https://doi.org/10.1177/0162243907307594.
Cousins, Ben, 2018. ‘Already Catastrophic’: Southern B.C. Might Be Hit by More Flooding.
ctvnews.ca, May 14. https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/already-catastrophicsouthern-b-c-might-be-hit-by-more-flooding-1.3928148, Accessed date: 1 December
2018.
Cozzens, Susan E., Woodhouse, Edward J., 1995. Science, government, and the politics of
knowledge. In: Jasanoff, Sheila, Markle, Gerald E., Peterson, James C., Pinch, Trevor
(Eds.), Handbook of Science and Technology Studies. California SAGE Publications,
Inc, Thousand Oaks, pp. 532–553.
Cullen, Drea, McGee, Gordon J.A., Gunton, Thomas I., Day, J.C., 2010. Collaborative
planning in complex stakeholder environments: an evaluation of a two-tiered collaborative planning model. Soc. Nat. Resour. 23 (4), 332–350. https://doi.org/10.
1080/08941920903002552.
Dickson, David, 2005. The Case for a ‘deficit Model’ of Science Communication. https://
www.scidev.net/global/communication/editorials/the-case-for-a-deficit-model-ofscience-communic.html, Accessed date: 1 December 2018.
Drummond, Caitlin, Fischhoff, Baruch, 2017. Individuals with greater science literacy and
education have more polarized beliefs on controversial science topics. Proc. Natl.
Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 114 (36), 9587–9592. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704882114.
Eden, S., 1998. Environmental issues: knowledge, uncertainty and the environment. Prog.
Hum. Geogr. 22 (3), 425–432. https://doi.org/10.1191/030913298676818153.
Eriksson, Louise, Björkman, Christer, J Klapwijk, Maartje, 2017. General public acceptance of forest risk management strategies in Sweden: comparing three approaches to
acceptability. Environ. Behav. 50 (2), 159–186. https://doi.org/10.1177/
0013916517691325.
FAO, 2016. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015. How Are the World's Forests
Changing? second ed. FAO.
FAO, 2016. State of the World's Forests 2016. Forests and Agriculture: Land-Use
Changelles and Opportunities. FAO, Rome.
FAO, 2018. The State of the World's Forests 2018 - Forest Pathways to Sustainable
Development. FAO, Rome.
Fayerman, Pamela, Mahichi, Behdad, 2018. B.C. Wildfires 2018: Medical Issues Surge as
Air Quality Advisory Becomes Longest on record." Vancouver Sun, Aug 21. https://
vancouversun.com/news/local-news/wildfires-2018-medical-issues-surge-as-airquality-advisory-becomes-longest-on-record, Accessed date: 5 January 2019.
Findlater, Kieran, Shannon, Hagerman, Kozak, Robert A., 2018. Stakeholder Risk
Perceptions in Climate-Adaptive forestry:Genomics for Assisted Migration in British
Columbia. Society for Risk Analysis Europe 2018, Östersund, Sweden June 19.
Ford, Rebecca M., Williams, Kathryn J.H., Smith, Eric L., Bishop, Ian D., 2012. Beauty,
belief, and trust: toward a model of psychological processes in public acceptance of
forest management. Environ. Behav. 46 (4), 476–506. https://doi.org/10.1177/
0013916512456023.
Fuller, Lauren, Marzano, Mariella, Peace, Andrew, Quine, Christopher P., Norman,
Dandy, 2016. Public acceptance of tree health management: results of a national
survey in the UK. Environ. Sci. Policy 59, 18–25.
Government of BC, 2017. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies. http://www2.gov.bc.
ca/gov/content/industry/forestry/managing-our-forest-resources/silviculture/treespecies-selection/tool-introduction/climate-change-adaptation, Accessed date: 27
September 2017.
Hagerman, Shannon M., Pelai, Ricardo, 2018. Responding to climate change in forest
management: two decades of recommendations. Front. Ecol. Environ. 16 (10),
579–587.
Hajjar, Reem, Kozak, Robert A., 2015. Exploring public perceptions of forest adaptation
strategies in Western Canada: implications for policy-makers. For. Policy Econ. 61,
59–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2015.08.004.
Harshaw, Howard, W., Sheppard, Stephen R.J., Paul, Jeakins, 2009. Public attitudes toward sustainable forest management: opinions from forest-dependent communities in
British Columbia. 10 (2), 81–103.
Hewitt, N., Klenk, N., Smith, A.L., Bazely, D.R., Yan, N., Wood, S., MacLellan, J.I., LipsigMumme, C., Henriques, I., 2011. Taking stock of the assisted migration debate. Biol.
Conserv. 144 (11), 2560–2572. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2011.04.031.
Howlett, Michael (Ed.), 2001. Canadian Forest Policy: Adapting to Change. University of
Toronto Press, Toronto.
Howlett, Michael, Rayner, Jeremy, Tollefson, Chris, 2009. From old to new dynamics in
Canadian forest policy: dynamics whithout change? In: Boardman, R., VanNijnatten,
D.L. (Eds.), Canadian Environmental Policy and Politics Prospects for Leadership and
Innovation. Oxford University Press, Don Mills, Ontario, pp. 183–196.
IPCC, 2018. Summary for policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pörtner, H.O.,
Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P.R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock,
R., Connors, S., Matthews, J.B.R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M.I., Lonnoy, E.,
Maycock, T., Tignor, M., Waterfield, T. (Eds.), Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC
Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels
and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of
Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable
Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. vol. 32 World Meteorological
Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Irwin, Alan, Wynne, Brian, 1996. Misunderstanding Science? the Public Reconstruction of
Science and Technology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Kahan, Dan M., Peters, Ellen, Wittlin, Maggie, Paul Slovic, Ouellette, Lisa Larrimore,
Braman, Donald, Mandel, Gregory, 2012. The polarizing impact of science literacy
and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nat. Clim. Change 2 (10), 732–735
doi: 10.1038/nclimate1547.
Kellstedt, Paul M., Zahran, Sammy, Arnold, Vedlitz, 2008. Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in
the United States. Risk Anal. 28 (1), 113–126. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.
2008.01010.x.
Kurz, Werner A., Graham, Stinson, Rampley, Gregory J., C Dymond, Caren, Neilson, Eric
T., 2008. Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to
the global carbon cycle highly uncertain. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Unit. States Am. 105
(5), 1551–1555. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0708133105.
Lachapelle, Paul R., McCool, Stephen F., 2012. The role of trust in community wildland
fire protection planning. Soc. Nat. Resour. 25 (4), 321–335. https://doi.org/10.1080/
08941920.2011.569855.
Leiserowitz, Anthony, Maibach, Edward, Roser-Renouf, Connie, Rosenthal, Seth, Scott,
Cutler, Kotcher, J., 2017. Climate Change in the American Mind: October 2017. Yale
University and George Mason University, New Haven, CT (Word Document).
Lorenzoni, Irene, Pidgeon, Nick F., 2006. Public views on climate change: european and
USA perspectives. Clim. Change 77 (1–2), 73–95. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584006-9072-z.
Luckert, M.K., Haley, D., Hoberg, G., 2011. Policies for Sustainably Managing Canada's
Forests: Tenure, Stumpage Fees, and Forest Practices. UBC Press, Vancouver.
Mabee, Holly Spiro, Hoberg, George, 2006. Equal partners? Assessing comanagement of
forest resources in clayoquot sound. Soc. Nat. Resour. 19 (10), 875–888. https://doi.
org/10.1080/08941920600901668.
McCartney, Margaret, 2016. Margaret McCartney: evidence in a post-truth world. BMJ
355, i6363. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i6363.
McFarlane, Bonita L., 2005. Public perceptions of risk to forest biodiversity. Risk Anal. 25
(3), 543–553. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00623.x.
McFarlane, Bonita L., Boxall, Peter C., 2000. Factors influencing forest values and attitudes of two stakeholder groups: the case of the foothills model forest, alberta,
Canada. Soc. Nat. Resour. 13 (7), 649–661. https://doi.org/10.1080/
08941920050121927.
McFarlane, Bonita L., Stumpf-Allen, R.Craig G., Watson, David O., 2006. Public perceptions of natural disturbance in Canada's national parks: the case of the mountain pine
beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). Biol. Conserv. 130 (3), 340–348. https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2005.12.029.
McFarlane, Bonita L., Parkins, John R., Watson, David O.T., 2012. Risk, knowledge, and
trust in managing forest insect disturbance. Can. J. For. Res. 42 (4), 710–719. https://
doi.org/10.1139/x2012-030.
McLachlan, Jason S., Hellmann, Jessica J., Schwartz, Mark W., 2007. A framework for
debate of assisted migration in an era of climate change. Conserv. Biol. 21 (2),
297–302. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00676.x.
Mildenberger, M., Howe, P.D., Lachapelle, E., Stokes, L.C., Marlon, J., Gravelle, T., 2016.
The distribution of climate change public opinion in Canada. http://environment.
yale.edu/ycom/canada/2016/, Accessed date: 6 April 2017.
Mueller, Jillian M., Hellmann, Jessica J., 2008. An assessment of invasion risk from assisted migration. Conserv. Biol. 22 (3), 562–567. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.15231739.2008.00952.x.
Nelson, Michael Paul, Gosnell, Hannah, Warren, Dana R., Batavia, Chelsea, Betts,
Matthew G., I Burton, Julia, Davis, Emily Jane, Schulze, Mark, Segura, Catalina,
Friesen, Cheryl Ann, Perakis, Steven S., 2017. Enhancing public trust in federal forest
management. In: Olson, Deanna H., Van Horne, Beatrice (Eds.), People, Forests, and
Change: Lessons 259 from the Pacific Northwest. Island Press, Washington, DC, pp.
259–274.
Olsen, Christine S., Shindler, Bruce A., 2010. Trust, acceptance, and citizen–agency interactions after large fires: influences on planning processes. Int. J. Wildland Fire 19
(1), 137–147. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08168.
Ostrom, Elinor, 2009. A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems. Science 325 (5939), 419–422.
O'Neill, G., Wang, T., Ukrainetz, N., Charleson, L., McAuley, L., Yanchuk, A., Zedel, S.,
2017. A Proposed Climate-Based Seed Transfer System for British Columbia. Vol.
B.C. Tech. Rep. 099. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, BC.
Park, A., Talbot, C., 2012. Assisted migration: uncertainty, risk and opportunity. For.
Chron. 88 (04), 412–419. https://doi.org/10.5558/tfc2012-077.
Pedlar, John H., McKenney, Daniel W., Aubin, Isabelle, Beardmore, Tannis, Beaulieu,
Jean, Iverson, Louis, O'Neill, Gregory A., Richard, S Winder, Ste-Marie, Catherine,
2012. Placing forestry in the assisted migration debate. Bioscience 62 (9), 835–842.
https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2012.62.9.10.
Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume, Shannon, Hagerman, Kozak, Robert, George, Hoberg,
2018a. Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's
forest sector. PLoS One 13 (4). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0195999.
Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume, Hagerman, Shannon M., Kozak, Robert A., 2018b. What
risks matter? Public views about assisted migration and other climate adaptive reforestation strategies. Clim. Change 151 (3–4), 573–587. https://doi.org/10.1007/
s10584-018-2310-3.
Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume, George, Hoberg, Sheppard, Stephen R.J., 2018c. A participatory approach to evaluating strategies for forest carbon mitigation in British
Columbia. Forests 9 (225).
Pidgeon, Nick, Fischhoff, Baruch, 2011. The role of social and decision sciences in
communicating uncertain climate risks. Nat. Clim. Change 1 (1), 35–41 doi: 10.1038/
485
Journal of Environmental Management 242 (2019) 474–486
G. Peterson St-Laurent, et al.
nclimate1080.
Pralle, Sarah, 2006. Branching out, digging. In: Environmental Advocacy and AgendaSetting. Georgetown University Press, Washington, DC.
Primmer, Eeva, Wolf, Steven, 2009. Empirical accounting of adaptation to environmental
change: organizational competencies and biodiversity in Finnish forest management.
Ecol. Soc. 14 (2), art27. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02926-140227.
Qin, Hua, Flint, Courtney G., 2010. Capturing community context of human response to
forest disturbance by insects: a multi-method assessment. Hum. Ecol. 38 (4),
567–579. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-010-9334-2.
Quackenbush, Casey, 2018. Smoke from wildfires made vancouver air worse than beijing.
Time Aug 22. http://time.com/5374214/vancouver-wildfires-air-quality/.
Racevskis, Laila A., Lupi, Frank, 2006. Comparing urban and rural perceptions of and
familiarity with the management of forest ecosystems. Soc. Nat. Resour. 19 (6),
479–495. https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920600663862.
Rauschmayer, Felix, Wittmer, Heidi, 2006. Evaluating deliberative and analytical
methods for the resolution of environmental conflicts. Land Use Pol. 23 (1), 108–122.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2004.08.011.
Ribe, R.G., Matteson, Mollie Y., 2002. Views of old forestry and new among reference
groups in the Pacific Northwest. West. J. Appl. For. 17 (4). https://doi.org/10.1093/
wjaf/17.4.173.
Sasser, Erika N., Prakash, Aseem, Cashore, Benjamin, Auld, Graeme, 2006. Direct targeting as an NGO political strategy: examining private authority regimes in the forestry sector. Bus. Polit. 8 (3), 1–32.
Schultz, Courtney, Mclntyre, Kathleen, Cyphers, Laren, Kooistra, Chad, Ellison, Autumn,
Moseley, Cassandra, 2018. Policy design to support forest restoration: the value of
focused investment and collaboration. Forests 9 (9), 512–520. https://doi.org/10.
3390/f9090512.
Sheppard, Stephen RJ., 2005. Participatory decision support for sustainable forest management: a framework for planning with local communities at the landscape level in
Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 35 (7), 1515–1526. https://doi.org/10.1139/x05-084.
Shi, Jing, Visschers, Vivianne H.M., Siegrist, Michael, Joseph, Arvai, 2016. Knowledge as
a driver of public perceptions about climate change reassessed. Nat. Clim. Change 6
(8), 759–762 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2997.
Shindler, C.Olsen B., McCaffrey, S., McFarlane, B., Christianson, A., McGee, T., Curtis, A.,
Sharp, E., 2014. A Planning Guide for Wildfire Agencies & Practitioners AgencyStakeholder Trust: an International Collaboration Drawing on Research and
Management Experience in Australia, Canada and the United States. A Joint Fire
Science Program Research Publication. Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR.
https://ir.library.oregonstate.edu/concern/defaults/cr56n147m (accessed Jan 27).
Siegrist, Michael, Cvetkovich, George, 2000. Perception of hazards: the role of social trust
and knowledge. Risk Anal. : Off. Publ. Soc. Risk Anal. 20 (5), 713–720. https://doi.
org/10.1111/0272-4332.205064.
Spence, A., Poortinga, W., Butler, C., Pidgeon, N.F., 2011. Perceptions of climate change
and willingness to save energy related to flood experience. Nat. Clim. Change 1 (1),
46–49 doi: 10.1038/nclimate1059.
Spies, Thomas A., Duncan, Sally L. (Eds.), 2012. Old Growth in a New World: a Pacific
Northwest Icon Reexamined. Island Press, Washington, DC.
Ste-Marie, Catherine, Elizabeth A Nelson, Anna, Dabros, Bonneau, Marie-Eve, 2011.
Assisted migration: introduction to a multifaceted concept. For. Chron. 87 (6),
724–730.
Stern, Marc J., 2008. Coercion, voluntary compliance and protest: the role of trust and
legitimacy in combating local opposition to protected areas. Environ. Conserv. 35
(03), 200. https://doi.org/10.1017/S037689290800502X.
Stern, Marc J., Baird, Timothy D., 2015. Trust ecology and the resilience of natural resource management institutions. Ecol. Soc. 20 (2). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES07248-200214. art14-12.
Stern, Marc J., Coleman, Kimberly J., 2015. The multidimensionality of trust: applications
in collaborative natural resource management. Soc. Nat. Resour. 28 (2), 117–132.
https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2014.945062.
Sturgis, Patrick, Allum, Nick, 2004. Science in society: Re-evaluating the deficit model of
public attitudes. Publ. Understand. Sci. 13 (1), 55–74. https://doi.org/10.1177/
0963662504042690.
Tambini, Damian, 2017. Fake News: Public Policy Responses. Media Policy Brief 20.
Media Policy Project, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/73015/1/LSE%20MPP%20Policy%20Brief%2020%20-%
20Fake%20news_final.pdf, Accessed date: 7 April 2017.
Tindall, D.B., Harshaw, H.W., Sheppard, S.R.J., 2010. Understanding the social bases of
satisfaction with public participation in forest management decision-making in
British Columbia. For. Chron. 86 (6), 709–722. https://doi.org/10.5558/tfc86709-6.
Toman, Eric, Shindler, Bruce, Brunson, Mark, 2006. Fire and fuel management communication strategies: citizen evaluations of agency outreach activities. Soc. Nat. Resour.
19 (4), 321–336. https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920500519206.
Toman, Eric L., Shindler, Bruce, Jim Absher, McCaffrey, Sarah, 2008. Postfire communications: the influence of site visits on local support. J. For. 25–30 January/February
2008.
Toman, Eric, Stidham, Melanie, Shindler, Bruce, McCaffrey, Sarah, 2011. Reducing fuels
in the wildland - urban interface: community perceptions of agency fuels treatments.
Int. J. Wildland Fire 20 (3), 340. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF10042.
Toman, Eric, Shindler, Bruce, McCaffrey, Sarah, Bennett, James, 2014. Public acceptance
of wildland fire and fuel management: panel responses in seven locations. Environ.
Manag. 54 (3), 557–570. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-014-0327-6.
Treaty Commission, B.C., 2018. BC Treaty Commission. http://www.bctreaty.ca,
Accessed date: 15 August 2018.
Vitt, Pati, Havens, Kayri, Kramer, Andrea T., Sollenberger, David, Yates, Emily, 2010.
Assisted migration of plants: changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes. Biol. Conserv.
143 (1), 18–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.08.015.
Wiliams, Robert Lawrence, 2002. Public Knowledge, Preferences and Involvement in
Adaptive Ecosystem Management. Master’s degree. Oregon State University.
Winter, G., Vogt, C.A., McCaffrey, S., 2004. Examining social trust in fuels management
strategies. J. For. 102 (6), 8–15.
Wright, Kevin B., 2005. Researching internet-based populations: advantages and disadvantages of online survey research, online questionnaire authoring software
packages, and web survey services. J. Computer-Mediated Commun. 10 (3). https://
doi.org/10.1111/j.1083-6101.2005.tb00259.x.
Wynveen, Christopher J., Sutton, Stephen G., 2015. Engaging the public in climate
change-related pro-environmental behaviors to protect coral reefs: the role of public
trust in the management agency. Mar. Pol. 53, 131–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.
marpol.2014.10.030.
486